Expert Political Judgment
How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
by Philip E. Tetlock
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“@pmarca @sriramk @aarthir @GoodTimeShowAS @pmarca book #1 on predictive markets and why listening to experts in times of dramatic change might not be prudent. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It How Can We Know New Edition by ... via @amazon | Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It How Can We Know by @PTetlock Is the future knowable, and by whom All pundits and commentators should publish their prediction track records, yet don't. What to pay attention to and what to ignore.”
Source →“@pmarca @sriramk @aarthir @GoodTimeShowAS @pmarca book #1 on predictive markets and why listening to experts in times of dramatic change might not be prudent. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It How Can We Know New Edition by ... via @amazon | Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It How Can We Know by @PTetlock Is the future knowable, and by whom All pundits and commentators should publish their prediction track records, yet don't. What to pay attention to and what to ignore.”
Source →Recommended by 4 notable people, including Patrick Collison and Marc Andreessen
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Recommended by 7 sources and appears in Most Recommended Books, Politics, and Psychology.
The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock first dis...
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Why recommended
Recommended by 7 sources and appears in Most Recommended Books, Politics, and Psychology.
Recommended by notable people
People and public figures who have recommended this book.
Recommendation Signals
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Steven Sinofsky
“@pmarca @sriramk @aarthir @GoodTimeShowAS @pmarca book #1 on predictive markets and why listening to experts in times of dramatic change might not be prudent. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It How Can We Know New Edition by ... via @amazon | Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It How Can We Know by @PTetlock Is the future knowable, and by whom All pundits and commentators should publish their prediction track records, yet don't. What to pay attention to and what to ignore.”
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Not sure if this is the right fit?
Consider The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse by Charlie Mackesy. Recommended by 8 sources.
“Soft-spoken, heavily illustrated fable built from short dialogues and watercolor sketches. Each spread pairs a spare line of text with a loose drawing, so the pleasure is visual and aphoristic rather than narrative; readers collect felt-true sentences more than plot. Most useful when you want quick consolations, a prompt for conversation with a child, or a pause during a rough day. Limiting if you want sustained argument, concrete advice, or tightly plotted storytelling: the repetition of gentleness can feel sentimental or thin after a while.”
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Each recommendation is collected from a public source — interviews, articles, or curated lists — and linked to its original URL. Books with many verifiable recommendations from respected people rank higher.